EU Summit – Deal or No Deal?

It has, yet again, been a busy week of Brexit news with the star of the show being the EU Summit in Brussels.

Having not yet reached a deal coming out of the Summit, and the suggestion of an extension to the transition period, we take a look at what the current state of play is and what this means for industry.

No Deal

It’s disappointing that no agreement has been met between the UK and EU by the original October deadline. As ADS have previously said, no deal is the worst possible outcome for industry as well as wider industry and time is running out to secure a deal.

Extended Transition Period

The biggest headline coming out of the Summit is the offer to extend the original 21-month transition period for another year. This is an opportunity to unlock the current impasse in negotiations, and although the Summit didn’t move the UK and EU negotiations on, the mood music was more positive in comparison to the fallout of the Salzburg Summit in September.

The Politics

The next two weeks will focus on the politics of finding a solution to the Irish border and whether the idea of a potential extension to the transition period will be acceptable for the various groups within Parliament. Discussions will focus on navigating between the options laid out previously such as the border in the Irish Sea, the UK-wide customs union backstop and other temporary solutions.

Budget Day

As we look ahead to the coming weeks, the Budget on 29 October will play a key date in the Brexit timeline and will signal how parliamentarians are currently feeling about the state of negotiations. Once the debate on the Budget in Parliament concludes, we could hopefully see the Brexit negotiations progress at a quicker pace.

Crunch-Time

If a deal is reached, a vote and a debate would need to be scheduled in the House of Commons as soon as possible so that the deal can be ratified before the UK leaves the EU on the 29 March 2019. A no deal would trigger the process for MPs to have their say on what Government does next, with the key crunch-time date of 21st January 2019 for this to happen.